Simulations

“This week, several top infectious disease experts ran simulations for The Associated Press that predicted as few as one or two additional infections by the end of 2014 to a worst-case scenario of 130. ‘I don't think there's going to be a huge outbreak here, no,’ said Dr. David Relman, a professor of infectious disease, microbiology and immunology at Stanford University's medical school. ‘However, as best we can tell right now, it is quite possible that every major city will see at least a handful of cases.’ Relman is a founding member of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services advisory board for biosecurity and chairs the National Academy of Sciences forum on microbial threats” (Martha Mendoza, Scientists Try to Predict number of US Ebola Cases, Associated Press, 11/1/14).

Northeastern University professor Alessandro Vespignani using the university's Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems, in early September, arrived a much lower worst case projection for the immediate future, however he alludes to a set of modeling variables no one has yet included: "My worry is that the epidemic might spill into other countries in Africa or the Middle East, and then India or China. That could be a totally different story for everybody."

The World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control either have yet to conduct modeling simulations outside the West African epicenter, or have declined to publish them.

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